CLIMATE HAZARD EXPOSURE, INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF A CAMPUS CLIMATE RESILIENCE INDEX FOR POLYTECHNICS IN SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying flooding, extreme heat and windstorms
that threaten infrastructure and operations in Nigeria. This study
assessed climate hazard exposure and infrastructure vulnerability across
polytechnic campuses in South-West Nigeria and developed a campus
climate resilience index. An assessment-and-index-development design
combined geospatial, field and survey methods. Hazards were mapped
for six campuses, exposure was assessed by geolocating buildings,
services, roads and critical assets, and vulnerability was assessed
through audit and survey of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. A
composite index was built from weighted, normalised indicators and
validated through sensitivity analysis and expert appraisal. Flooding
was the most significant hazard (24.6% of campus areas), followed by
extreme heat (18.4%) and windstorms (12.8%). Exposure was highest
for roads and drainage (62.4%), followed by buildings (48.6%) and
utilities (42.8%). Overall, 58.4% of infrastructure had low adaptive
capacity, with inadequate drainage (72.6%), poor maintenance (64.2%)
and lack of early warning systems (58.4%) as key gaps. The Campus
Climate Resilience Index (CCRI) ranged from 0.44 to 0.62 (mean 0.53).
Experts rated it highly for robustness (3.60), relevance (3.80) and
usability (3.40). The study provides a hazard and vulnerability
assessment and a validated index to support climate resilience planning
in Nigerian polytechnics.